金融资产收益分布的混合高斯分析

本文研究了金融资产收益的混合高斯分布模型 ,给出了混合高斯分布的 Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验的方法 ,分析了金融资产收益的非高斯性及市场价格运动的有效性 .此外 ,用成分数目 K*、拟合误差 DK*n和主成分系数 p*k 描述金融资产收益的性质 ,对外汇银行同业拆借市场和中国股票市场实证分析     

Evaluating alternative system configurations using simulation: A nonparametric approach

The real utility of simulation lies in comparing different alternatives that might represent competing system designs. Conventional statistical techniques are not directly applicable to the analysis of simulation output data in the evaluation of competing alternatives since the usual assumptions of normality and common variance are difficult to justify in simulation experiments. This paper revisits a known nonparametric test whose application has recently become feasible due to considerable increases in computing power:randomization tests assess the significance of the observed value of the test statistic by evaluating different permutations of the data. The procedure only requires invariance of the data under all permutations.     

Ruin probabilities for a risk process with stochastic return on investments

In this paper, we consider a risk process with stochastic return on investments. The basic risk process is the classical risk process while the return on the investment generating process is a compound Poisson process plus a Brownian motion with positive drift. We obtain an integral equation for the ultimate ruin probability which is twice continuously differentiable under certain conditions. We then derive explicit expressions for the lower bound for the ruin probability. We also study a joint distribution related to exponential functionals of Brownian motion which is required in the derivations of the explicit expressions for the lower bound.     

一类组合投资问题的线性规划解法

根据选定总体风险的一个上界值使组合投资的收益率达到最大的原则，并在合理简化的基础上建立组合投资决策问题的线性规划模型。然后通过算例求解带有参数的线性规划问题，给出资产组合的风险控制值和相应的最大净收益率及投资比例向量的关系。     

Combinatorial data analysis: Confirmatory comparisons between sets of matrices

The task of assessing the similarity of pattern between the entries of two square matrices has been discussed extensively over the last decade, as a unifying strategy for approaching a variety of seemingly disparate statistical problems. As typically defined, the comparison depends on a measure of matrix correspondence, usually a normalized cross-product measure of some form, that is evaluated for relative size by the use of a reference distribution constructed through an equally likely permutation hypothesis defined at the level of the objects corresponding to the rows and columns of the two matrices. The extreme generality provided by this very simple framework subsumes a variety of different statistical problems, ranging from the study of spatial autocorrelation for variables observed over a set of geographic locations, to the topics of analysis of variance, the measurement of rank correlation, and confirmation techniques concerned with various conjectures of combinatorial structure that might be posited for an empirically determined measure of relationship between pairs of a given set of objects. The comparison strategies extant always assume that both matrices are fixed, and in those cases where one of the matrices codifies a given theoretical structure to be evaluated according to a second, this assumption can lead to substantial arbitrariness in how matrix similarity might be indexed, and thus, in how the comparison is implemented. As developed in this paper, exactly the same principles appropriate for use in the fixed comparison context can be extended to include matrices constructed through optimally weighted linear combinations of other sets of matrices. This generalization provides one mechanism for developing comparison strategies that allow assessment against very broad classes of matrices, which in turn serve to represent very general conjectures of possible combinatorial structure. This paper reviews some of these extensions in detail, with a particular emphasis on categorical and ordered categorical variables and whether they may reflect an empirically generated measure of object relationship.     

Testing Hypotheses About the Power Law Process Under Failure Truncation Using Intrinsic Bayes Factors

Conventional Bayes factors for hypotheses testing cannot typically accommodate the use of standard noninformative priors, as such priors are defined only up to arbitrary constants which affect the values of the Bayes factors. To circumvent this problem, Berger and Pericchi (1996, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 19, 109-122) introduced a new criterion called the Intrinsic Bayes Factor (IBF). In this paper, we use their methodology to test several hypotheses regarding the shape parameter of the power law process. Assuming that we have data from the process according to the failure-truncation sampling scheme, we derive the arithmetic and geometric IBF's using the reference priors. We deduce a set of intrinsic priors that correspond to these IBF's, as the observed number of failures tends to infinity. We then use these results to analyze an actual data set on the failures of an aircraft generator.     

Some test statistics for the structural coefficients of the multivariate linear functional relationship model

Summary For the testing problem concerning the coefficients of the multivariate linear functional relationship model, the distribution of a statistic previously proposed by A. P. Basu depends on the unknown covariance matrixV of errors, so limiting its applicability. This article proposes new test statistics with sampling distributions which are independent of the unknown parameters for the cases whereV is either unknown or known only up to a proportionality factor. The exact distributions of the test statistics are also discussed.     

A probability distribution for precipitation data analysis

Hydrologic design is often based on assessments of large return interval measures; it is vital to be able to conclude them as precisely as possible. Henceforth, the selection of a probability distribution is very crucial for such cases. In view of this scenario, we propose and study a pliant probability distribution for precipitation data analysis. Some mathematical and statistical properties are analyzed. In order to make stronger predictions and judge the realistic return period, we have also characterized the model via Laplace transformation. We have estimated its parameters via the maximum likelihood estimation and constructed its information matrix for developing the confidence belt of population parameters. Moreover, a real-life setup is also considered by applying the model over precipitation data of diverse regions, including Jacksonville, Florida (USA), Barkhan (Pakistan), British Columbia (Canada), and Alexandria (Egypt). This investigated study is based on various statistical parametric and nonparametric tests, which indicates that the proposed model is one of the better strategies for precipitation data analysis when compared with the famous three-parameter Kappa model.     

Strain gage evaluation with four-point bending at moderate temperatures

This paper describes the application of the traditional four-point bending technique to conduct strain gage performance tests at moderate temperatures. The tests measure the apparent strain, linearity, drift, creep and hysteresis behavior to ascertain the reliability of strain gages to be used in the testing of experimental cylindrical vessels subjected to thermal loading. The four-point bending rig was designed to take advantage of the advances in personal computer datalogging and graphical processing software. The test rig is designed to provide a thermal barrier to minimize the heat losses and thermal isolation of the test beam while maintaining structural continuity. A low wattage and lightweight electric foil heater incorporating a precise temperature controller minimizes weight and enhances temperature stability. Gage performance data on five candidate strain gages at temperatures ranging from ambient to 215°C (419°F) are presented, and the evaluation procedure is outlined. The strain gage with the most acceptable performance was identified within the validity limits from ambient to a temperature of 215°C and from zero to a maximum strain of 1000 .     

Laboratory optimization of the soil digging process

A new idea for the optimization of digging using earth-working machinery is presented and experimentally verified. This idea is based on the conclusions derived from previous papers presented by the same authors, that the soil cutting trajectories incorporating the generated shear band as a part of them are the optimal ones. Dividing the whole excavation task into several repeatable cycles for which the soil free boundary before and after the experiment are similar the optimization of a single cycle plays a significant role in the energetic efficiency of the whole task. A single cycle of the working process is defined using several basing parameters. The influence of each parameter on the specific unit energy of the process was experimentally verified. Finally, a set of values for the discussed parameters is recommended for the particular soil and tool shape.